What this monitor can—and cannot—tell us

Hypothesis

A broad housing-market break is more likely when stress appears simultaneously in prices, demand, credit conditions, bank resilience, construction activity, and Mongolia’s external economy. The monitor tests that breadth. It does not forecast the price of an individual apartment.

Indicator scores

Each indicator is converted to a risk-oriented expanding historical percentile from 0 to 100. Direction is set in advance: for example, higher non-performing loans mean higher risk, while weaker mortgage-account growth means higher risk. A series needs 36 comparable signal observations before it contributes to a pillar.

Pillars and headline status

Available indicator scores are averaged within each of six equally weighted pillars. At least four eligible pillars are required for a headline score. Green requires a score below 35 and no more than one pillar at 65 or above. Red requires a score of at least 65, at least three pillars at 65 or above, and the same condition in two consecutive publications. Everything else is Amber.

Vintages and confidence

Every observation has a reporting period and an availability date based on the source’s stated frequency and publication lag. Historical calculations cannot use observations after that date. Confidence is separate from risk and falls when sources fail, observations become stale, or series lack sufficient history.

Known limitations

Official national and Ulaanbaatar aggregates can hide neighborhood differences. Release lags are modeled conservatively where machine-readable release histories are unavailable. Aggregate bank statistics are automated first; company-level bank financial statements remain a reviewed extension because disclosure layouts change and ambiguous PDF mappings must not be guessed.

Investment use

This is a disciplined evidence summary, not investment advice. A Red reading is a prompt to investigate liquidity, leverage, rental coverage, refinancing exposure, and exit assumptions—not an automatic instruction to sell.