Last updated August 23, 2026
A monthly early-warning model looking for synchronized stress across prices, demand, credit, banks, construction, and the external economy.
Breadth matters
Red requires broad stress that persists for two publications. One alarming series is not enough.
1/1 indicators scored · 100% confidence
1/1 indicators scored · 100% confidence
2/2 indicators scored · 100% confidence
2/2 indicators scored · 100% confidence
1/1 indicators scored · 100% confidence
1/1 indicators scored · 100% confidence
Underlying data
Every value includes its reporting date, freshness, confidence, official source, and full downloadable series.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office of Mongolia · reported 2026-07-01
Three-month change in the official hedonic housing price index. Falling momentum is treated as near-term market stress.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Annual growth in the number of individual mortgage accounts. Weak or negative growth suggests fading financed demand.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Annual growth in outstanding individual mortgage credit. A sharp slowdown can signal tighter credit or weaker demand.
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Weighted rate on newly issued loans to real-estate activities. Higher funding costs increase refinancing and affordability pressure.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Non-performing loans divided by total outstanding loans for depository corporations. Higher impaired-credit shares weaken bank resilience.
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Aggregate bank capital accounts divided by total assets. A thinner capital buffer implies greater vulnerability to losses.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office of Mongolia · reported 2026-03-01
Annual change in cumulative residential construction work nationally. Contraction signals weakening developer activity and financing conditions.
Risk pillar
National Statistics Office / Bank of Mongolia · reported 2026-06-01
Annual change in the end-period USD/MNT rate. Faster depreciation can tighten imported-input costs and foreign-currency balance sheets.
Model history
The overall monthly score runs from 0 to 100. Higher values mean more indicators are showing stress. Historical points use only data available at the time.
Changelog
Initial monthly publication. Published August 23, 2026 10:47. Source dates and missing observations are shown explicitly; the previous valid publication remains online if a refresh fails.